Holiday Shopping Forecasts: What’s Really Happening This Year
Holiday shopping is the annual pressure cooker where consumers sprint through November and December fuelled by Cyber Week deals, Christmas gifting, and last-minute panic buys. It’s the biggest retail moment of the year, and the numbers back it up. Online sales during Cyber Week climbed 5% year over year, while in-store visits increased 3%, proof that both digital and physical retail are still very much alive (Retail TouchPoints).
Small businesses are also seeing tailwinds, with shoppers increasingly choosing to buy local and support independent brands throughout the season. Nearly all surveyed SMBs said they expect stronger November–December demand compared with previous years (US Chamber of Commerce).
Holiday shopping isn’t just about presents. It’s a cultural moment wrapped in urgency, tradition, and the inexplicable human desire to spend three times our weekly grocery budget on gifts and gadgets. It turns even the calmest consumer into someone refreshing shipment tracking like it’s the cricket score.
Why This Year Is Interesting
What makes this season worth paying attention to is the momentum behind ecommerce. Analysts anticipate another strong holiday surge driven by earlier shopping behaviour, loyalty-driven offers, and aggressive marketplace promotions (Digital Commerce 360).
The retail landscape is also shifting fast. Shoppers now expect seamless omnichannel experiences, personalised bundles, faster delivery, and creative hooks that actually stand out in overcrowded feeds (The Drum).
This isn’t just about “more people buying more stuff.” It’s about how they’re doing it. Patience drops. Decision-making accelerates. People transform from browsers into checkout sprinters. Even the classic “I’ll think about it” shopper suddenly becomes someone who buys two just in case one sells out.
The chaos becomes an opportunity, if you know how to ride it.
Why It’s Not All Sunshine
The holiday surge doesn’t treat every sector equally. Some industries quietly take a hit as consumer attention and spending consolidate around big retail and ecommerce players. Analysts note that holiday budgets lean heavily toward categories like electronics, apparel, beauty, and home goods (Nasdaq).
Hospitality in particular feels the squeeze. With AI-powered shopping tools nudging people toward better deals, faster delivery, and personalised discounts, consumers often choose to stay home rather than dine out. Restaurants are reporting tighter margins during Black Friday and holiday shopping windows (Restaurant Business Online).
If your industry competes directly with retail dollars or depends on discretionary spending, the holiday shopping boom can easily become a budget black hole.
Holiday Shopping in 2025: The Big Picture
Holiday shopping is a high-velocity commercial window defined by rising online sales, growing in-store foot traffic, and increased support for small businesses. It’s compelling because ecommerce continues to surge, consumer behaviour shifts rapidly under seasonal pressure, and retailers must adapt to higher expectations around convenience, speed, and creative differentiation. But not all sectors benefit. Some lose share as consumers prioritise retail deals over dining and service-based spending.
Dadek Digital turns this seasonal chaos into predictable performance by building campaigns, funnels, and creative systems designed to capture demand when competition peaks. We help brands stand out, convert faster, and protect their margins in the most competitive window of the year.